Dr. Jordan Butcher
Assistant Professor at Arkansas State University in the Department of Government, Law & Policy. Her research explores the careers of lawmakers and has been published in The Journal of Legislative Studies and Legislative Studies Quarterly. She is the author of Navigating Term Limits: The Careers of State Legislators (2023, Palgrave Macmillan).
Email: jbutcher@astate.edu
Twitter: @jordanmbutcher
Web: jordanmbutcher.com
U.S. Election 2024
36. The tilted playing field, and a bygone conclusion (Dr David Karpf)
37. Looking forwards and looking back: Competing visions of America in the 2024 presidential campaign (Prof John Rennie Short)
38. Brat went splat: Or the emotional sticky brand won again (Prof Ken Cosgrove)
39. Election 2024: Does money matter anymore? (Prof Cayce Myers)
40. Advertising trends in the 2024 presidential race (Prof Travis N. Ridout, Prof Michael M. Franz, Prof Erika Franklin Fowler)
41. Who won the ground wars? Trump and Harris field office strategies in 2024 (Sean Whyard, Dr Joshua P. Darr)
42. Kamala Harris: Idealisation and persecution (Dr Amy Tatum)
43. Kamala Harris campaign failed to keep Democratic social coalition together (Prof Anup Kumar)
44. Revisiting Indian-American identity in the 2024 U.S. presidential election (Dr Madhavi Reddi)
45. Harris missed an opportunity to sway swing voters by not morally reframing her message (Prof John H. Parmelee)
46. In pursuit of the true populist at the dawn of America’s golden age (Dr Carl Senior)
47. Language and the floor in the 2024 Harris vs Trump televised presidential debate (Dr Sylvia Shaw)
48. Nullifying the noise of a racialized claim: Nonverbal communication and the 2024 Harris-Trump debate (Prof Erik P. Bucy)
49. A pseudo-scientific revolution? The puzzling relationship between science deference and denial (Dr Matt Motta)
50. Amidst recent lows for women congressional candidates, women at the state level thrive (Dr Jordan Butcher)
The number of women running for the House of Representatives in 2024 dropped by more than 100 from 2022. While having a woman running for president would typically encourage more women to run for Congress, Kamala Harris’ campaign has been quite short. The goal of reaching gender parity is focused on recruiting women to run for office at the local, state, and national levels. This goal is supported by numerous organizations such as Emily’s List; Sally’s List;Vote, Run, Lead; and Represent Women. Despite these broad efforts, the number of women in Congress has yet to reach parity, and fewer women are running for office in notably visible roles.
Although many efforts have been made to recruit women to office, the drop in women running for Congress indicates that women are not returning. Increasing the number of women in office is not only about recruiting women but also about retaining the ones who serve. Why is it that in a world of strong incumbency advantage, women do not stay in office?
Why women won’t stay.
Expectations are key and are often the underlying issue differentiating men and women in office. Women face barriers to elected office that men typically do not, including personal attacks and electoral challenges
The high profile of women in Congress means that women are often targeted. In fact, women are “three times more likely” to be on the receiving end of threats than men. Most notably, women running for office are often on the receiving end of overtly sexual comments, harassment from constituents, and threatening behavior.
The discrepancy between men and women is amplified by the general lack of electoral support that women receive. Men, however, are placed in better seats and face fewer pressures when running for office. When a party is well-positioned to win a district women are encouraged to drop out of the race.
Where are the women?
While women may not be running at the top of the legislative ticket, more than 4,000 women are running for office in U.S. state legislatures. In 2024, every state legislative chamber holding an election has at least one woman running for office. It is worth noting that Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia hold elections in off years. Additionally, Alabama, Maryland, and the Michigan Senate are elected on 4-year terms and not holding state legislative elections in the 2024 cycle.
The Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) compiles information on women across all offices each election. For the 2024 general election, of the 4,000 women running, 1,679 are incumbents and 1,282 are electoral challengers.
Figure 1: The Percentage of Women Incumbents and Challengers in the 2024 State Legislative Elections (compared to total legislative seats)
(Compiled by the author using CAWP, 2024 Women State Legislative Candidates)
Figure 1 shows the states where there are more women incumbents and challengers (for the general election). By comparing the number of women running to the number of seats in each legislative chamber, we can see where women are more apt to be successful.
The top five states with the highest percentage of incumbents running, as compared to seats in the chamber, are New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Washington, and Illinois. In New Mexico and Arizona, the number of women running is equal to the number of seats in the legislature. California, Nevada, and Colorado’s lower chambers have more women running than there are seats in the chamber. When evaluating all the states with elections, there are 52 state legislative chambers with enough women running that 50 percent of the current seats could be filled by women.
The percentage of women incumbents in state senates is quite low, but some states, like California, are seeing more women challengers than incumbents. In the Primary election, incumbent women were very successful, winning 95.6 percent of the time. Newcomers were also quite successful; challengers won primaries at a rate of 87.7 percent. Where women fared the worst was in open-seat elections—at 67.1 percent.
Why lower-level offices matter.
There is a pipeline to be considered—for women to rise to state legislative office and, later, Congress. They need to be viewed as competitive with men, often meaning they need more experience. Colorado, a state that continually has high rates of women in the state legislature, is also the state with the most women serving in local government.
As women continue to attain more seats in state legislatures, the emphasis on retention will become increasingly important. The Nevada legislature has (and maintains) a majority-women legislature. The success of women in state legislative elections during the 2024 cycle will foreshadow the success of women in Congress over the next few elections, as women extend their careers beyond the state. Seeing women in office at the local and state levels encourages women to run for office in the future. The illustration of attainability is not to be underrated.