{"id":716,"date":"2024-11-11T13:56:24","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T13:56:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/?page_id=716"},"modified":"2024-11-15T15:31:34","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T15:31:34","slug":"the-keys-to-the-white-house-why-allan-lichtman-is-wrong-this-time","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2024\/section-3-voters\/the-keys-to-the-white-house-why-allan-lichtman-is-wrong-this-time\/","title":{"rendered":"The keys to the White House: Why Allan Lichtman is wrong this time"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Tom Fisher<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author of the Keys to Downing Street, an adaptation of Allan Lichtman\u2019s election forecasting method to the UK political scene. He predicted a Labour Majority of 170 on election eve this year. He has also written a novel and poetry collection. He is a teacher of English as a foreign language and also an actor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Email: tfisher77@yahoo.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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U.S. Election 2024<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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25. Seeing past the herd: Polls and the 2024 election<\/a> (Dr Benjamin Toff)
26. On polls and social media<\/a> (Dr Dorian Hunter Davis)
27. How did gender matter in 2024?<\/a> (Prof Regina Lawrence)
28. The keys to the White House: Why Allan Lichtman is wrong this time<\/a> (Tom Fisher)
29. Beyond the rural vote: Economic anxiety and the 2024 presidential election<\/a> (Dr Amanda Weinstein, Dr Adam Dewbury)
30. Black and independent voters: Which way forward?<\/a> (Prof Omar Ali)
31. Latino voters in the 2024 election<\/a> (Dr Arthur D. Soto-V\u00e1squez)
32. Kamala\u2019s key to the polls: The Asian American connection<\/a> (Nadya Hayasi)
33. The vulnerability of naturalized immigrants and the hero who \u201cwill fix\u201d America<\/a> (Dr Alina E. Dolea)
34. Did Gen Z shape the election? No, because Gen Z doesn\u2019t exist <\/a>(Dr Michael Bossetta)
35. Cartographic perspectives of the 2024 U.S. election<\/a> (Prof Benjamin Hennig)<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Although I am primarily concerned with predicting British general elections, having published my Keys to Downing Street,<\/em> earlier this year, the methodology I used was adapted from that of American historian Allan Lichtman. Professor Lichtman gave me his kind permission to adapt the system which has predicted every U.S. Presidential election ahead of time since 1984 using the keys<\/em>. This system views general elections as a kind of referendum on the success and competence of the sitting government, with the quality of the opposition only of small importance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The method involves the calling of thirteen keys. Each key is a true or false statement, to be answered from the viewpoint of the sitting government. If six or more keys are false, the incumbent lose the popular vote, and if five or fewer are false, they win it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am writing this on October 10th<\/sup>, so by the time you read this, the results will be in. So, here is my prediction for November\u2019s Presidential elections. Allan Lichtman himself has publicly predicted a Harris win, yet I am not alone in thinking that this time, he may be wrong. Let\u2019s take a look at the keys, and see what they foretell. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The first key is clearly false, as the Democrats lost the house in 2022. The next key is true, because when Biden dropped out, Kamala Harris was not seriously opposed. The third key is false, since Kamala Harris is only Vice President, not the sitting President. The fourth key is true, since before Robert Kennedy Junior dropped out of the race and endorsed Donald Trump, he was only polling at around five percent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key five is the bone of contention. Certainly, by any objective measure of GDP, the US economy is not in recession now. However, in his book, Professor Lichtman argued that the ultimate arbiter of the keys is public perception, and not raw data. Two polls since May have shown that 56-59 % of Americans believe the economy to be in recession. They also apparently believe that inflation is rising and unemployment is at a fifty-year high despite the exact opposite being the case. Therefore, we have the situation of a false consciousness of recession \u2013 dubbed in the media as a \u2018vibecession.\u2019 Therefore, I disagree with Allan Lichtman, and declare the key false. Key six is objectively true, because the COVID lockdowns during Trump\u2019s term severely reduced economic growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key seven is also true, since the Biden administration has implemented the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Bill, which are both innovations promoting green technology and a clear change of policy from the Trump administration. One can also point to the change of policy on immigration and border controls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key eight, is true, since although there were protests against American policy on the Israel-Gaza war in the spring, these have largely petered out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key nine is true. Although there have been investigations into the President\u2019s son, Hunter Biden, no link has been established to the President himself. Although Biden was accused of unlawfully removing documents when he was VP, there will be no trial, and therefore these issues fall short of toppling this key. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key ten is undoubtedly false. The disastrous scuttle from Afghanistan three years ago, the failure of the Americans to restrain Israel in the Middle East, and the failure to secure the southern border, are all major failures. Key eleven is also a failure, barring a breakthrough in the Middle East or Ukraine in the next thirty days. Although American aid to Ukraine has not been a failure, the bloody stalemate in the Ukraine is far from being a success. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The twelfth key is definitely false, as Kamala Harris falls well below the threshold of a once-in-a-generation inspirational figure, such as JFK or Obama. The thirteenth and final key is true, since although Donald Trump is undoubtedly a charismatic figure to his base, his charisma does not extend much beyond it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, we have six false keys, predicting a Trump victory in the popular vote and electoral college. Even if we were to accept that Short Term Economy key five is technically true, it would still be a very precarious predicament for Kamala Harris. With five false keys, a narrow win in the popular vote would be assured, but a win in the electoral college would be contingent on Harris fighting a highly competent campaign. With two weak keys \u2013 Short-Term Economy and Third Party (RFK drew more support than normal for a third party, signalling a degree of popular discontent) she would need to fight a stellar, if not exceptional campaign. She has not done so.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tom Fisher Author of the Keys to Downing Street, an adaptation of Allan Lichtman\u2019s election forecasting method to the UK political scene. He predicted a Labour Majority of 170 on election eve this year. He has also written a novel and poetry collection. He is a teacher of English as a foreign language and also […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":1010,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-716","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\nThe keys to the White House: Why Allan Lichtman is wrong this time - Election Analysis - United States<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2024\/section-3-voters\/the-keys-to-the-white-house-why-allan-lichtman-is-wrong-this-time\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The keys to the White House: Why Allan Lichtman is wrong this time - Election Analysis - United States\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tom Fisher Author of the Keys to Downing Street, an adaptation of Allan Lichtman\u2019s election forecasting method to the UK political scene. 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