{"id":466,"date":"2020-11-14T21:54:05","date_gmt":"2020-11-14T21:54:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/?page_id=466"},"modified":"2020-11-14T21:54:09","modified_gmt":"2020-11-14T21:54:09","slug":"the-disinformed-election","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/the-disinformed-election\/","title":{"rendered":"The disinformed election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"452\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Saif_Shahin_-_shahin.png?resize=452%2C453&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-467\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Saif_Shahin_-_shahin.png?w=452&amp;ssl=1 452w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Saif_Shahin_-_shahin.png?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Saif_Shahin_-_shahin.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Saif_Shahin_-_shahin.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 452px) 100vw, 452px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"US207bio\"><strong>Dr Saif Shahin<\/strong><br><br>Assistant Professor in the School of Communication at American University, Washington, D.C.<br><br><em>Twitter: @shahin_saif<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"308\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/US20_divider_7_democracy_in_crisis.png?resize=400%2C308&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-192\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/US20_divider_7_democracy_in_crisis.png?w=400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/US20_divider_7_democracy_in_crisis.png?resize=300%2C231&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"US207\"> Section 7: Democracy in crisis<\/h5>\n<div class=\"page-list\"><ul class=\"list-group-item\"><li class=\"page_item page-item-434\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/social-media-moderation-of-political-talk\/\">Social media moderation of political talk<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-437\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/the-speed-of-technology-vs-the-speed-of-democracy\/\">The speed of technology vs. the speed of democracy<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-440\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/the-future-of-election-administration-how-will-states-respond\/\">The future of election administration: how will states respond?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-443\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/how-the-movement-to-change-voting-procedures-was-derailed-by-the-2020-election-results\/\">How the movement to change voting procedures was derailed by the 2020 election results<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-446\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/from-clown-to-community-the-democratic-potential-of-civility-and-incivility\/\">From \u2018clown\u2019 to \u2018community\u2019: the democratic potential of civility and incivility<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-449\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/searching-for-misinformation\/\">Searching for misinformation<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-456\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/relational-listening-as-political-listening-in-a-polarized-country\/\">Relational listening as political listening in a polarized country<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-459\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/qanon-the-election-and-an-evolving-american-conservativism\/\">QAnon, the election, and an evolving American conservativism<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-462\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/president-trump-disinformation-and-the-threat-of-extremist-violence\/\">President Trump, disinformation, and the threat of extremist violence<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-469\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/election-2020-and-the-further-degradation-of-local-journalism\/\">Election 2020 and the further degradation of local journalism<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:75%\">\n<p>Perhaps four years of anxiety were misplaced. Perhaps disinformation did not affect the 2020 election after all. In the weeks and months leading up to Election Day, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.propublica.org\/article\/how-to-spot-and-fight-election-misinformation\">biggest disinformation campaigns<\/a>&nbsp;attempted to suppress voting in general and mail-in voting in particular. Yet, not only did Americans vote in record numbers, it was mail-in ballots \u2014 cast overwhelmingly by Democratic Party supporters \u2014 that reversed Donald Trump\u2019s early leads in key battleground states and handed Joe Biden the victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, the disinformation campaign perhaps did have an effect. It was the Republican Party, and Trump in particular, who cast doubt on the reliability of mail-in voting. The same results indicate most of his supporters did listen to him and chose to crowd the polling booths in person \u2014 even as COVID-19 cases reached record peaks in the United States \u2014 to cast their ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Political scientists would call this a \u201cmoderated effect\u201d: the disinformation campaign did affect voting behavior, but the effect was moderated by party affiliation. Republicans were much more likely to be influenced by it than Democratic voters. Nor was this the first instance of such an effect: several&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/psycnet.apa.org\/record\/2019-57441-001\">scientific studies<\/a>&nbsp;indicate a strong relationship between partisan bias and susceptibility to \u201cfake news.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hiding behind anecdotes and statistics is a deeper truth about disinformation: its acceptance relies less upon the content of a campaign itself and more upon how closely it coheres with an individual\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/1461670X.2018.1492881\">beliefs about the world<\/a>&nbsp;they live in\u2014beliefs that are increasingly built around partisan boundaries. Discrete pieces of disinformation do not carry any meaning on their own. They have to fit within larger&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/1369118X.2020.1748088\">partisan narratives about social reality<\/a>, narratives that feature good and evil, heroes and villains, victims and oppressors, before they \u201cmake sense\u201d to an individual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Congruence with a narrative \u2014 for instance, an \u201coppressive\u201d Democratic Party trying to snatch the election from Republican \u201cvictims\u201d and Trump waging a \u201cheroic\u201d war on behalf of those victims \u2014 is what leads a particular disinformation campaign \u2014 for instance, mail-in ballots being a fraud perpetrated by the Democrats \u2014 to appear meaningful. Those who believe in this narrative buy into the disinformation and act accordingly. Those who believe in a different narrative, in which the heroes and villains and reversed, treat it as \u201cfake news.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crucially though, this is not just true for disinformation but for information in general. Republican supporters considered the COVID-19 pandemic to be a hoax because the mounting toll exposed Trump\u2019s inefficiency as a president and Trump, the hero, himself played it down. The virus, arriving on the heels of the Democratic impeachment of Trump, simply did not fit into the Republican narrative of how the world works. What did fit, however, was the idea of the virus as another evil Democratic plot to bring down the good president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Believing in and acting upon a piece of (dis)information, therefore, has little to do with truth and lies, right and wrong. Instead, it is closely related to people\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full\/10.1177\/2056305120916841\">partisan identities<\/a>&nbsp;and has become a form of identity&nbsp;<em>performance&nbsp;<\/em>\u2014 a ritual of who you are and where you belong in the increasingly fragmented body politic. But identities are always constructed in opposition to an \u201cother:\u201d distrust of and antipathy toward the \u201cother\u201d is fundamental to the conception of the \u201cself.\u201d That is the reason why so much of disinformation is accusatory of the \u201cother\u201d side or showcases one\u2019s own side as a victim of the \u201cother\u2019s\u201d perfidy \u2014 an instance of what political scientists call&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/ajps.12152\">affective polarization<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Understanding disinformation and its effects in terms of identity performance has important lessons for the media. Over the past four years, so much of this effort has been directed toward \u201cfact checking\u201d discrete pieces of disinformation. But that does not take us very far. Disinformation is unlikely to influence those whose partisan narratives it does not fit \u2014 just like Democrats disregarding all the lies about mail-in voting. For whom it does, countering fiction with fact is unlikely to make them disbelieve. After all, four years of fact checking Trump has not made any dent in his credibility among his supporters. Indeed, such attempts may&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11109-010-9112-2\">backfire<\/a>&nbsp;and themselves be viewed as a means to censor their side \u2014 thus feeding into the cycle of polarization. For similar reasons, \u201cmedia literacy\u201d efforts to educate people to detect disinformation are unlikely to have the desired result either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Acknowledging disinformation as a symptom of the deeper malady of affective polarization also carries lessons for politics and specifically for deliberative democracy. It exposes what Chantal Mouffe&nbsp;has called \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com\/books\/about\/The_Democratic_Paradox.html?id=5rwu0FA9aO4C\">a fundamental tension between the logic of democracy and the logic of liberalism<\/a>\u201d: while liberalism recognizes differences in beliefs and values, deliberative democracy requires \u201ca final rational resolution\u201d of those differences through deliberation. But when people are willing to die for beliefs and values&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2017\/07\/the-strange-effect-fact-checking-has-on-trump-supporters\/532701\/\">they know to be based on falsehoods<\/a>, there is little hope for rational resolutions and consensus. Instead, democratic models need to gravitate away from deliberation toward&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/quod.lib.umich.edu\/p\/pc\/12322227.0009.011?view=text;rgn=main\"><em>agonistic pluralism<\/em><\/a>, in which the \u201cother\u201d is not viewed as an \u201cenemy\u201d to be conquered but as an \u201cadversary\u201d to be accepted as a legitimate political voice, even if that voice disagrees with our own.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dr Saif Shahin Assistant Professor in the School of Communication at American University, Washington, D.C. Twitter: @shahin_saif Perhaps four years of anxiety were misplaced. Perhaps disinformation did not affect the 2020 election after all. In the weeks and months leading up to Election Day, the&nbsp;biggest disinformation campaigns&nbsp;attempted to suppress voting in general and mail-in voting [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":26,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-466","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The disinformed election - Election Analysis - United States<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-7-democracy-in-crisis\/the-disinformed-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The disinformed election - Election Analysis - United States\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dr Saif Shahin Assistant Professor in the School of Communication at American University, Washington, D.C. Twitter: @shahin_saif Perhaps four years of anxiety were misplaced. Perhaps disinformation did not affect the 2020 election after all. 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Twitter: @shahin_saif Perhaps four years of anxiety were misplaced. Perhaps disinformation did not affect the 2020 election after all. 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