{"id":171,"date":"2020-11-14T15:11:02","date_gmt":"2020-11-14T15:11:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/?page_id=171"},"modified":"2020-11-14T15:11:03","modified_gmt":"2020-11-14T15:11:03","slug":"a-movable-force-the-armed-forces-voting-bloc","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/a-movable-force-the-armed-forces-voting-bloc\/","title":{"rendered":"A movable force: the armed forces voting bloc"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"453\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_Weinstein_Headshot1.png?resize=453%2C453&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-175\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_Weinstein_Headshot1.png?w=453&amp;ssl=1 453w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_Weinstein_Headshot1.png?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_Weinstein_Headshot1.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_Weinstein_Headshot1.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 453px) 100vw, 453px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"US201bio\"><strong>Dr Amanda Weinstein<br><\/strong><br>Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Akron. Dr. Weinstein studies regional economic growth and the impact of women in the workforce and has recently turned her attention to tracking the pandemic in Ohio. Her work has been covered in various media including the Harvard Business Review and the Atlantic\u2019s CityLab.<br><br><em>Twitter: @ProfWeinstein<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"308\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/US20_divider_1_policy.png?resize=400%2C308&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-120\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/US20_divider_1_policy.png?w=400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/US20_divider_1_policy.png?resize=300%2C231&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"US201\"> Section 1: Policy and political context<\/h5>\n<div class=\"page-list\"><ul class=\"list-group-item\"><li class=\"page_item page-item-115\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/the-far-too-normal-election\/\">The far-too-normal election<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-121\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/one-pandemic-two-americas-and-a-week-long-election-day\/\">One pandemic, two Americas and a week-long election day<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-125\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/political-emotion-and-the-global-pandemic-factors-at-odds-with-a-trump-presidency\/\">Political emotion and the global pandemic: factors at odds with a Trump presidency<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-129\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/the-pandemic-did-not-produce-the-predominant-headwinds-that-changed-the-course-of-the-country\/\">The pandemic did not produce the predominant headwinds that changed the course of the country<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-134\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/confessions-of-a-vampire\/\">Confessions of a vampire<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-137\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/covid-19-and-the-2020-election\/\">COVID-19 and the 2020 election<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-141\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/president-trump-promised-a-covid-vaccine-by-election-day-that-politicized-vaccination-intentions\/\">President Trump promised a COVID vaccine by Election Day: that politicized vaccination intentions<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-145\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/the-enduring-impact-of-the-black-lives-matter-movement-on-the-2020-elections\/\">The enduring impact of the Black Lives Matter movement on the 2020 elections<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-149\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/where-do-we-go-from-here-the-2020-u-s-presidential-election-immigration-and-crisis\/\">Where do we go from here? The 2020 U.S. presidential election, immigration, and crisis<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-152\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/a-nation-divided-on-abortion\/\">A nation divided on abortion?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-156\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/ending-the-policy-of-erasure-transgender-issues-in-2020\/\">Ending the policy of erasure: transgender issues in 2020<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-159\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/u-s-presidential-politics-and-planetary-crisis-in-2020\/\">U.S. presidential politics and planetary crisis in 2020<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-162\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/joe-biden-and-americas-role-in-the-world\/\">Joe Biden and America\u2019s role in the world<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-165\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/president-bidens-foreign-policy-engagement-multilateralism-and-cautious-globalization\/\">President Biden\u2019s foreign policy: engagement, multilateralism, and cautious globalization<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-168\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/presidential-primary-outcomes-as-evidence-of-levels-of-party-unity\/\">Presidential primary outcomes as evidence of levels of party unity<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-179\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/guns-and-the-2020-elections\/\">Guns and the 2020 elections<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-182\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/can-bidens-win-stop-the-decline-of-the-west-and-restore-the-role-of-the-united-states-in-the-world\/\">Can Biden\u2019s win stop the decline of the West and restore the role of the United States in the world?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:75%\">\n<p>Early polls suggested there may be dramatic swings in voting behavior for a few key voting blocs on November 3rd. The most shocking prediction came in August from a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2020\/08\/31\/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden\/\">Military Times Poll<\/a>&nbsp;(in partnership with the Institute for Veterans and Military Families) suggesting that former Vice President Biden was four points ahead of President Trump with active duty military members. For comparison,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/2016\/05\/09\/military-times-survey-troops-prefer-trump-to-clinton-by-a-huge-margin\/\">a similar poll<\/a>&nbsp;in 2016 gave Trump a 29 point lead over Clinton with active duty military members. In the end,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2016\/11\/08\/us\/politics\/election-exit-polls.html\">exit polls in 2016<\/a>&nbsp;suggested that veterans voted overwhelmingly for Trump by 27 points. Active duty military members and veterans are an institution of the Republican party leading many&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/10\/10\/magazine\/veterans-democrats-midterm-elections.html\">Democrats to ignore this voting group<\/a>&nbsp;turning their attention toward others. A 31-point swing in the veteran voting bloc would suggest a significant crack in the base of the Republican party and an opening for the Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, veterans are a small share of the voting populace at just&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.va.gov\/vetdata\/docs\/SpecialReports\/State_Summaries_Michigan.pdf\">6.6 percent<\/a>&nbsp;of the adult population in the U.S. Both the Democratic and Republican parties might logically set their sights on and allocate a greater share of scarce campaign resources toward larger growing demographic groups such as the Hispanic population &#8211; nearly 2.5 times larger than the veteran population (about 16 percent of the adult population). Yet, when margins of victory are thin, small voting blocs can have an outsized impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"648\" height=\"350\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_veteran_pexels-pixabay-41161.jpg?resize=648%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-176\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_veteran_pexels-pixabay-41161.jpg?resize=1024%2C553&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_veteran_pexels-pixabay-41161.jpg?resize=300%2C162&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_veteran_pexels-pixabay-41161.jpg?resize=768%2C415&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_veteran_pexels-pixabay-41161.jpg?resize=1536%2C830&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_veteran_pexels-pixabay-41161.jpg?w=1825&amp;ssl=1 1825w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_veteran_pexels-pixabay-41161.jpg?w=1296&amp;ssl=1 1296w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px\" \/><figcaption>Source: Pixabay, Pexels<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2016, Trump\u2019s margin of victory was the closest in Michigan, winning by just&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/the-run-2016\/articles\/2016-11-14\/the-10-closest-states-in-the-2016-election\">13,080 votes<\/a>. With nearly 600 thousand veterans in Michigan (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.va.gov\/vetdata\/statesummaries.asp\">8.2 percent<\/a>&nbsp;of the adult population), even a slight narrowing of the veteran gap in voting behavior could have moved Michigan to Clinton in 2016. Similarly, veterans comprise&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.va.gov\/vetdata\/statesummaries.asp\">8.6 percent<\/a>&nbsp;of the adult population in Wisconsin at well over 300 thousand veterans in the state; Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by a slim margin of just 27,257 votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reports of President Trump\u2019s disparaging remarks referring to fallen service members that echoed his attacks against the late John McCain may have created the opening Biden needed to sway veterans. But President Trump\u2019s support among military members showed signs of slipping well before. Polls show President Trump\u2019s approval rating among active-duty military had been slowly&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2018\/10\/15\/support-for-trump-is-fading-among-active-duty-troops-new-poll-shows\/\">declining since he first took office<\/a>. Despite the decline, active-duty military members approval ratings remained higher than the general population in 2018. By 2019, approval ratings among active-duty military dropped further to be&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2019\/07\/10\/strong-support-for-trump-among-veterans-in-new-national-poll\/\">on par with the nation<\/a>&nbsp;with military members expressing concerns that Trump does not listen to military leadership. Biden was well positioned to seize this opportunity. \u201cJoe Biden is someone who has always been a champion for service member, veterans, and their families. It\u2019s deeply personal to him as the father of an Iraq War veteran,\u201d&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/516595-biden-courts-veterans-amid-fallout-from-trump-military-controversies\">said Will Goodwin<\/a>, the director of government relations for the group VoteVets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"648\" height=\"584\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Veteran_Shrink.png?resize=648%2C584&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-177\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Veteran_Shrink.png?resize=1024%2C923&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Veteran_Shrink.png?resize=300%2C270&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Veteran_Shrink.png?resize=768%2C692&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Veteran_Shrink.png?w=1273&amp;ssl=1 1273w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Many may be too quick to discount veterans as an immovable monolithic voting bloc. The military population has been changing slowly over time with more women and minorities in their ranks including at the highest levels of leadership. The nation\u2019s perceptions of military members and of veterans is outdated. Many non-veterans are surprised to find out that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/national-security\/456425-empower-the-va-with-the-tools-to-help-our-veterans\">veterans out-earn non-veterans<\/a>, on average, largely because they are more highly educated and more skilled than non-veterans. These misperceptions can&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1080\/00036846.2018.1527445\">hinder veterans in the workforce<\/a>, but it can also lead political strategists and political hopefuls astray if they are too quick to discount them. Not Biden. In the closing months of the election, Biden took the time to hold roundtables with veterans in key swing states such as Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, exit polls in 2020 suggest Biden did not win the veteran vote, potentially further discouraging the Democratic party from future efforts to sway this demographic group. But Biden did narrow the veteran gap from a 27-point advantage to Trump in 2016 to just&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/11\/03\/us\/elections\/exit-polls-president.html\">7 percentage points<\/a>&nbsp;in 2020, a 20 point swing! By narrowing this gap, Biden likely gained about 70,000 additional votes in Michigan, 43,000 in Wisconsin, 60,000 in Arizona, 82,000 in Georgia, and 97,000 in Pennsylvania. As the nation waited for Pennsylvania to finish counting votes moving on to counting absentee ballots from military members (used to waiting to have their ballots counted),<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politicususa.com\/2020\/11\/06\/biden-wins-military-ballots.html\/amp\">&nbsp;reports<\/a>&nbsp;came out that Biden won 4 out of 5 military ballots in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When narrowing margins can win elections, neither political party should discount any voting bloc \u2013 yet, small voting blocs can only have a big impact if the larger voting blocs of the political base remain stalwart.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dr Amanda WeinsteinAssociate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Akron. Dr. Weinstein studies regional economic growth and the impact of women in the workforce and has recently turned her attention to tracking the pandemic in Ohio. Her work has been covered in various media including the Harvard Business Review and the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":14,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-171","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>A movable force: the armed forces voting bloc - Election Analysis - United States<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/a-movable-force-the-armed-forces-voting-bloc\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A movable force: the armed forces voting bloc - Election Analysis - United States\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dr Amanda WeinsteinAssociate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Akron. 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Dr. Weinstein studies regional economic growth and the impact of women in the workforce and has recently turned her attention to tracking the pandemic in Ohio. 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