{"id":129,"date":"2020-11-14T14:37:14","date_gmt":"2020-11-14T14:37:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/?page_id=129"},"modified":"2020-11-14T14:40:21","modified_gmt":"2020-11-14T14:40:21","slug":"the-pandemic-did-not-produce-the-predominant-headwinds-that-changed-the-course-of-the-country","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/the-pandemic-did-not-produce-the-predominant-headwinds-that-changed-the-course-of-the-country\/","title":{"rendered":"The pandemic did not produce the predominant headwinds that changed the course of the country"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"454\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_Weinstein_Headshot.png?resize=454%2C453&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-130\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_Weinstein_Headshot.png?w=454&amp;ssl=1 454w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_Weinstein_Headshot.png?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_Weinstein_Headshot.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_Weinstein_Headshot.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 454px) 100vw, 454px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"US201bio\"><strong>Dr Amanda Weinstein<\/strong><br><br>Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Akron. Dr. Weinstein studies regional economic growth and the impact of women in the workforce and has recently turned her attention to tracking the pandemic in Ohio. Her work has been covered in various media including the Harvard Business Review and the Atlantic\u2019s CityLab.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Twitter: @ProfWeinstein<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"308\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/US20_divider_1_policy.png?resize=400%2C308&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-120\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/US20_divider_1_policy.png?w=400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/US20_divider_1_policy.png?resize=300%2C231&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"US201\"> Section 1: Policy and political context<\/h5>\n<div class=\"page-list\"><ul class=\"list-group-item\"><li class=\"page_item page-item-115\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/the-far-too-normal-election\/\">The far-too-normal election<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-121\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/one-pandemic-two-americas-and-a-week-long-election-day\/\">One pandemic, two Americas and a week-long election day<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-125\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/political-emotion-and-the-global-pandemic-factors-at-odds-with-a-trump-presidency\/\">Political emotion and the global pandemic: factors at odds with a Trump presidency<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-134\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/confessions-of-a-vampire\/\">Confessions of a vampire<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-137\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/covid-19-and-the-2020-election\/\">COVID-19 and the 2020 election<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-141\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/president-trump-promised-a-covid-vaccine-by-election-day-that-politicized-vaccination-intentions\/\">President Trump promised a COVID vaccine by Election Day: that politicized vaccination intentions<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-145\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/the-enduring-impact-of-the-black-lives-matter-movement-on-the-2020-elections\/\">The enduring impact of the Black Lives Matter movement on the 2020 elections<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-149\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/where-do-we-go-from-here-the-2020-u-s-presidential-election-immigration-and-crisis\/\">Where do we go from here? The 2020 U.S. presidential election, immigration, and crisis<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-152\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/a-nation-divided-on-abortion\/\">A nation divided on abortion?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-156\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/ending-the-policy-of-erasure-transgender-issues-in-2020\/\">Ending the policy of erasure: transgender issues in 2020<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-159\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/u-s-presidential-politics-and-planetary-crisis-in-2020\/\">U.S. presidential politics and planetary crisis in 2020<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-162\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/joe-biden-and-americas-role-in-the-world\/\">Joe Biden and America\u2019s role in the world<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-165\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/president-bidens-foreign-policy-engagement-multilateralism-and-cautious-globalization\/\">President Biden\u2019s foreign policy: engagement, multilateralism, and cautious globalization<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-168\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/presidential-primary-outcomes-as-evidence-of-levels-of-party-unity\/\">Presidential primary outcomes as evidence of levels of party unity<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-171\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/a-movable-force-the-armed-forces-voting-bloc\/\">A movable force: the armed forces voting bloc<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-179\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/guns-and-the-2020-elections\/\">Guns and the 2020 elections<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-182\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/can-bidens-win-stop-the-decline-of-the-west-and-restore-the-role-of-the-united-states-in-the-world\/\">Can Biden\u2019s win stop the decline of the West and restore the role of the United States in the world?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:75%\">\n<p>The choice between former Vice President Biden and President Trump seemed to be a choice between either addressing the ongoing coronavirus outbreak or the economy. Indeed, exit polls show that voters most concerned about the pandemic voted for Biden by a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/11\/03\/us\/elections\/exit-polls-president.html\">68 point margin<\/a>\u00a0and voters most concerned about the economy voted for Trump by a 65 point margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the pandemic looming large changing nearly every aspect of our lives and as cases rose to their highest levels since the pandemic began leading up to the election, many predicted large wins for Biden. The large margin of victory for Biden that many predicted did not happen. Biden lost Florida and flipped key states by slim margins. Exit polls suggest that the pandemic was the number one issue for only&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/11\/03\/us\/elections\/exit-polls-president.html\">17 percent<\/a>&nbsp;of voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"648\" height=\"513\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Consumer_Spending.png?resize=648%2C513&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-131\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Consumer_Spending.png?resize=1024%2C811&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Consumer_Spending.png?resize=300%2C238&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Consumer_Spending.png?resize=768%2C608&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Consumer_Spending.png?w=1392&amp;ssl=1 1392w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/Amanda_Weinstein_-_WEINSTEIN_Consumer_Spending.png?w=1296&amp;ssl=1 1296w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Among five issues, the economy was the most important issue for the largest share of voters at 35 percent. Yet, the two are not mutually exclusive. Data from&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/tracktherecovery.org\/\">Opportunity Insights<\/a>&nbsp;show that consumer spending began its freefall as the U.S. announced its first COVID-19 case. Consumer confidence wanes as coronavirus spreads. Thus, economists suggest that we should not expect a full economic recovery until after pandemic has passed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Biden focused more on effectively addressing the pandemic while President Trump focused on economic recovery by getting \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/523026-trumps-pitch-to-women-on-coronavirus-recovery-were-getting-your-husbands-back-to\">husbands back to work<\/a>\u201d. Yet, it is women who have experienced the most severe effects of this pandemic-induced recession with 4 times more women than men dropping out of the workforce&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/10\/20\/924566058\/even-the-most-successful-women-are-sidelining-careers-for-family-in-pandemic?fbclid=IwAR25BMMvEHoZxk3PqvfQi2SYhyRgchGd2PO8Pw0vx3sX51UymryWo0n09uQ\">recently<\/a>. Female labor force participation rates have dropped&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/LNS11300002\">2 percent<\/a>. Women dominate the high people-skill occupations that have been lost to a virus spread by people.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-07-16\/how-3-skill-sets-explain-u-s-economic-geography?fbclid=IwAR1PM0h6ZKHaV-1dQXJqwjEiYz3RDtvFhXduhkIgklOJwE1o9EaM0aOELD4\">Fewer high people-skill workers in the economy will lengthen the time to recovery<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2018\/01\/when-more-women-join-the-workforce-wages-rise-including-for-men?fbclid=IwAR2td5AnXSmVfDleT1TQKD8QfiufQLjPZIGdje-UqtIkmSvwtl5fnHk93XY\">will stall wage growth for those who remain in the workforce<\/a>. In today\u2019s economy, America will not be able to recover without the skills and abilities and experiences that women bring to the workforce. An August survey of economists by the National Association for Business Economics showed that a majority (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/sergeiklebnikov\/2020\/08\/24\/economists-warn-us-gdp-wont-recover-to-pre-pandemic-levels-until-2022\/?sh=4384bee65078\">62 percent<\/a>) of economists believed that Biden would do a better job promoting economic growth, in stark contrast to the voters most concerned about the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But economic growth is no longer broadly shared by all Americans.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewsocialtrends.org\/2020\/01\/09\/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality\/\">The gains from economic growth increasingly go to the richest Americans and aggregate wealth continues to decline for middle income and lower income households<\/a>. Long-run economic trends that promote aggregate growth have not benefited many Americans especially in places acutely affected by outsourcing and automation. The largest swings toward the republicans in 2016 happened in the Midwest &#8211; in areas that have historically relied on manufacturing, many of them rural with no other industries waiting in the wings. The long-term economic realities of the inequality associated with technological change and globalization have yet to be addressed in any meaningful way. Yet, policies that fight against these economic headwinds are&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-election-steel-insight\/trump-steel-tariffs-bring-job-losses-to-swing-state-michigan-idUSKBN26U161\">unlikely to be successful<\/a>&nbsp;and have a significant opportunity cost of diverting funds away from policies that would instead help everyone to adapt to the economic headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Health experts suggest that the pandemic will be over sometime in late 2021, which means that, less than a quarter of the next presidential term will be marked by the pandemic. That still leaves at least three more years for the next president to address the other concerns of American citizens. The pandemic is a short-term problem compared to larger long-term issues that have plagued many Americans \u2013&nbsp;both economic inequality and racial inequality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Exit polls show that among five issues, racial inequality mattered most for&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/11\/03\/us\/elections\/exit-polls-president.html\">20 percent<\/a>&nbsp;of voters (a higher share than the pandemic and second only to the economy). The voters most concerned about racial inequality voted for Biden by an 83-point margin. A significant portion of voters want a social recovery that addresses the long-run systemic issues facing minorities and an economic recovery that addresses inequalities in our economic system. And the two are not mutually exclusive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dr Amanda Weinstein Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Akron. Dr. Weinstein studies regional economic growth and the impact of women in the workforce and has recently turned her attention to tracking the pandemic in Ohio. Her work has been covered in various media including the Harvard Business Review and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":14,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-129","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The pandemic did not produce the predominant headwinds that changed the course of the country - Election Analysis - United States<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2020\/section-1-policy-and-political-context\/the-pandemic-did-not-produce-the-predominant-headwinds-that-changed-the-course-of-the-country\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The pandemic did not produce the predominant headwinds that changed the course of the country - Election Analysis - United States\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dr Amanda Weinstein Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Akron. 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Dr. Weinstein studies regional economic growth and the impact of women in the workforce and has recently turned her attention to tracking the pandemic in Ohio. 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