{"id":91,"date":"2016-11-18T00:25:03","date_gmt":"2016-11-18T00:25:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/?page_id=91"},"modified":"2016-11-18T15:07:36","modified_gmt":"2016-11-18T15:07:36","slug":"evidence-for-the-powerful-roles-of-polarization-and-partisanship","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/evidence-for-the-powerful-roles-of-polarization-and-partisanship\/","title":{"rendered":"Evidence for the powerful roles of polarization and partisanship"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"row \"><\/p>\n<p><div class=\"col-lg-3 col-md-3 col-xs-12 col-sm-3\">\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-336\" src=\"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Judd_Thornton-bw.png\" alt=\"judd_thornton-bw\" width=\"227\" height=\"227\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Judd_Thornton-bw.png 286w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Judd_Thornton-bw-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Judd_Thornton-bw-60x60.png 60w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 227px) 100vw, 227px\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"ProfileText2\">\n<p class=\"BIO\"><strong><span class=\"CharOverride-35\">Dr Judd Thornton<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"BIO\"><em><span class=\"CharOverride-42\">Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Georgia State University. His primary focus is on mass political behaviour. In particular, his interests include partisanship, beliefs systems and ideology, the interplay between elite and mass opinion, and issues of measurement.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"BIO\"><span class=\"EMAIL\">Email: jrthornton@gsu.edu<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-260\" src=\"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-300x300.png\" alt=\"US2016 - Section 2\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-768x771.png 768w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-1020x1024.png 1020w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-60x60.png 60w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2.png 1022w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<h5 class=\"CampaignQuote2\">Section 2: Campaign<\/h5>\n<div class=\"page-list\"><ul class=\"list-group-item\"><li class=\"page_item page-item-95\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/the-emotional-brand-wins\/\">The emotional brand wins<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-97\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/donald-trumps-slogan-betrays-a-renewed-political-fixation-on-the-past\/\">Donald Trump\u2019s slogan betrays a renewed political fixation on the past<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-99\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/dog-whistles-and-dumpster-fires\/\">Dog whistles and dumpster fires<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-101\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/how-donald-trump-bullies-with-his-body-language\/\">How Donald Trump bullies with his body language<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-103\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/analysing-debate-questions-is-it-time-to-rethink-the-town-hall\/\">Analysing debate questions: is it time to rethink the town hall?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-105\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/image-bites-voter-enthusiasm-and-the-2016-presidential-election\/\">Image bites, voter enthusiasm, and the 2016 Presidential Election<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-107\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/air-war-campaign-advertising-in-the-2016-presidential-election\/\">Air war? Campaign advertising in the 2016 Presidential Election<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-109\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/us-election-what-impact-do-celebrity-endorsements-really-have\/\">US election: what impact do celebrity endorsements really have?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-111\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/the-backlash-of-the-loose-cannon-musicians-and-the-celebrity-cleavage\/\">The backlash of the loose cannon: musicians and the celebrity cleavage<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-113\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/the-curious-case-of-jill-stein\/\">The curious case of Jill Stein<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-115\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/the-green-party-effect-in-the-us-2016-election\/\">The Green Party effect in the US 2016 Election<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-127\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/us-presidential-candidate-selection\/\">US presidential candidate selection<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-117\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/the-lolnothingmatters-election\/\">The #LolNothingMatters election<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<p><\/div><\/p>\n<p><div class=\"col-lg-9 col-md-9 col-xs-12 col-sm-9\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">The 2016 presidential campaign featured two candidates who were viewed negatively even by many members of their own party. In other words, many voters may have experienced ambivalence about their party\u2019s nominee throughout the campaign. While definitive data is not yet available, it appears that both candidates were able to overcome, to varying degrees, such ambivalence with many of their partisan supporters.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><strong><span class=\"CharOverride-36\">An uneasy feeling<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">A voter is ambivalent when he or she possesses both positive and negative feelings or beliefs about a candidate. For example, coverage of Clinton\u2019s email scandal may have caused a Democrat who otherwise would support many of her policies to be wary of her. Similarly, a potential Trump supporter may have felt positively about his positions on taxes while being alarmed by his bragging about\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/trump-recorded-having-extremely-lewd-conversation-about-women-in-2005\/2016\/10\/07\/3b9ce776-8cb4-11e6-bf8a-3d26847eeed4_story.html?tid=a_inl\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">sexually assaulting women<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">, his\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/the-fix\/wp\/2016\/10\/20\/from-mexican-rapists-to-bad-hombres-the-trump-campaign-in-two-moments\/\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">racist language<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">, or his tendency to pick fights with members of his own party.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Ambivalence has important consequences for both attitudes and behavior. Most relevant to our discussion here, ambivalent voters may be, in some cases, more willing\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1467-9221.2011.00830.x\/full\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">to vote against<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0the party they usually support. Perhaps more likely, ambivalent voters will take longer to make up their mind, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for his or her candidate. Consequently, a candidate and his or her party will have to spend more effort convincing\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"REGULAR\">an ambivalent voter to cast a ballot for his or her party.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Consistent with this conclusion is research demonstrating that more often than not, voters who have a history of supporting one party over the other do not defect from their party, even\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1540-6237.2012.00940.x\/full\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">when experiencing ambivalence<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">. Ambivalence toward the nominee of one\u2019s preferred party\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1540-5907.2010.00505.x\/full\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">often declines<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0over the course of the campaign. That is, individuals become more favorably disposed to their own party\u2019s candidate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Underlying these findings is a long\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=Iux07CCye5QC&amp;printsec=frontcover&amp;dq=voting+berelson&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwiDxOi4xP3OAhXKLSYKHfoAA7IQ6AEIHDAA\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">line of research<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0indicating one of the major\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/2132225?seq=1\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">roles of a campaign<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0is to bring home \u2018<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/1540-5907.00041\/full\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">mismatched partisans<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u2019. For example, the GOP would attempt to persuade a Republican hesitant to support Trump. In recent elections, including 2016, the vast majority of partisans who voted have ended up supporting their party\u2019s nominee.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><strong><span class=\"CharOverride-36\">The role of campaigns<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Conventional wisdom suggests that positive messaging by the party, the candidate and his or her surrogates causes positive feelings about the candidate to become more relevant to a supporter of a party, and negative feelings less so.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">How might this work? With Clinton, months of advertisements and positive statements from President Obama, Bernie Sanders and others likely led to a softening of negative attitudes. And, we did in fact see her overall favorability numbers increase among Democrats.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">There was reason to believe throughout the campaign that this process was not going to work as smoothly for Donald Trump and the Republicans. Trump has a habit of both starting and escalating dis<\/span>agreements with members of his own party. For example, from the very early days of his campaign he has had flair ups with recent presidential nominee\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2015\/07\/trump-attacks-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured-120317\"><span class=\"Hyperlink\">John McCain<\/span><\/a>\u00a0and Speaker of the House\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2016\/08\/trump-endorses-paul-ryan-226729\"><span class=\"Hyperlink\">Paul Ryan<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Moreover, several Republican Senators declared they would not be\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2016\/09\/where-republicans-stand-on-donald-trump-a-cheat-sheet\/481449\/\"><span class=\"Hyperlink\">voting for Trump<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">. And, public intellectuals such as\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/donald-trump-and-the-fitness-threshold\/2016\/08\/04\/b06bae34-5a69-11e6-831d-0324760ca856_story.html?utm_term=.296f4d819ee6\"><span class=\"Hyperlink\">Charles Krauthammer<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0and\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/george-will-exits-the-republican-party-over-trump\/2016\/06\/25\/2b6cdcaa-3b09-11e6-9ccd-d6005beac8b3_story.html\"><span class=\"Hyperlink\">George Will<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0have also disavowed Trump. Likewise, many newspapers that have historically endorsed Republicans declined to endorse Trump and some even endorsed his opponent \u2014 for example, the Dallas Morning News\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dallasnews.com\/opinion\/editorials\/20160906-donald-trump-is-no-republican.ece\"><span class=\"Hyperlink\">endorsed Clinton<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">, the first time the paper has endorsed a Democrat since 1940. Indeed, the editorial stated that \u201cTrump is no Republican.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">While Democrats heard members of their party consistently praise and defend Clinton, Republicans often encountered messages ranging from tepid support to open hostility toward Trump. Yet, many Republicans supported their party\u2019s candidate \u2014 early evidence indicates 90% of\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"REGULAR\">Republicans who voted cast a ballot for the Republican nominee.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">This presents a puzzle: how did such a unique nominee result in such a typical outcome? The answer may partly lie in the powerful forces of partisanship and polarization. As the parties have moved increasingly distant ideologically, voters have sorted into\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=O0mTXyhQnD8C&amp;dq=sorting+partisanshhip+levendusky&amp;source=gbs_navlinks_s\"><span class=\"Hyperlink\">partisan camps<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">. As a result, partisanship\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/2669291\"><span class=\"Hyperlink\">matters more<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0than it ever has and voters are reluctant to\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/ajps.12218\/abstract\"><span class=\"Hyperlink\">abandon their party<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">. Indeed, recent elections have\u00a0<\/span>tended to be far more competitive than we observed in the middle of the 20th century. The 2016 election suggests that partisanship remains a powerful force.<\/p>\n<p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":23,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-91","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Evidence for the powerful roles of polarization and partisanship - US Election Analysis 2016<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/evidence-for-the-powerful-roles-of-polarization-and-partisanship\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evidence for the powerful roles of polarization and partisanship - 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