{"id":119,"date":"2016-11-18T00:34:08","date_gmt":"2016-11-18T00:34:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/?page_id=119"},"modified":"2016-11-18T15:47:06","modified_gmt":"2016-11-18T15:47:06","slug":"trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump-Clinton was expected to be close: the economy said so"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"row \"><\/p>\n<p><div class=\"col-lg-3 col-md-3 col-xs-12 col-sm-3\">\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-384\" src=\"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw.png\" alt=\"andrew_gelman-bw\" width=\"227\" height=\"227\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw.png 289w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw-60x60.png 60w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 227px) 100vw, 227px\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"ProfileText3\">\n<p class=\"BIO\"><strong><span class=\"CharOverride-35\">Prof Andrew Gelman<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"BIO\"><em>Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University, New York<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"BIO\"><span class=\"EMAIL\">Email: gelman@stat.columbia.edu<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-259\" src=\"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-3-300x300.png\" alt=\"US2016 - Section 3\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-3-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-3-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-3-768x767.png 768w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-3-1024x1022.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-3-60x60.png 60w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-3.png 1026w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<h5 class=\"CampaignQuote3\">Section 3: Policy<\/h5>\n<div class=\"page-list\"><ul class=\"list-group-item\"><li class=\"page_item page-item-121\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/picking-up-the-pieces-the-2016-us-presidential-election-and-immigration\/\">Picking up the pieces: the 2016 US Presidential Election and immigration<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-123\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/a-bilingual-campaign-clintons-latino-political-communication\/\">A bilingual campaign: Clinton\u2019s Latino political communication<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-125\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/how-the-wall-with-mexico-symbolizes-the-utopia-of-trumps-supporters\/\">How the wall with Mexico symbolizes the Utopia of Trump\u2019s supporters<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-129\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/after-the-election-trumps-wall\/\">After the election: Trump\u2019s wall<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-131\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trumps-global-war-on-terror\/\">Trump\u2019s Global War on Terror<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-133\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/will-trump-continue-obamas-legacy-of-drone-strikes\/\">Will Trump continue Obama\u2019s legacy of drone strikes?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-135\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/loose-cannons-or-the-silent-debate-on-drones\/\">Loose cannons: or the silent debate on drones<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-137\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/guns-return-to-american-elections\/\">Guns return to American elections<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-139\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/president-trump-and-climate-change\/\">President Trump and climate change<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-141\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/dark-days-ahead-for-our-climate\/\">Dark days ahead for our climate<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<p><\/div><\/p>\n<p><div class=\"col-lg-9 col-md-9 col-xs-12 col-sm-9\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Conventional wisdom is that fringe candidates get repudiated, \u00e0 la 1964 and 1972. The\u00a0story isn\u2019t so simple.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">While Hillary Clinton is the consensus of most Democrats, from activists on up to the\u00a0establishment, Donald Trump was the Republican candidate whom many Republicans wanted\u00a0to avoid. From this perspective, Trump\u2019s position resembled that of Barry Goldwater in\u00a01964 and George McGovern in 1972, two ideologically extreme candidates\u2014Goldwater on\u00a0the right and McGovern on the left\u2014who were handicapped by strong opposition within\u00a0their parties, limped through their campaigns, and got destroyed by over 20 percentage\u00a0points in the general election. To add to the analogy, these candidates\u2019 opponents\u2014Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon\u2014were, like Hillary Clinton, viewed by many\u00a0voters as cynical, calculating politicians rather than inspiring leaders. Those two years,\u00a01964 and 1972, still stand as cautionary lessons about the fate of any fringe candidate\u00a0who manages to grab the presidential nomination\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"REGULAR\">without having secured the backing of\u00a0his party\u2019s establishment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">But Donald Trump defied political gravity. How could this be?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">The biggest difference between 2016 and 1964\/1972 has nothing to do with the\u00a0candidates or the conventions or ideology or endorsements or the fracturing of political\u00a0parties. It turns out that, according to many years of research from political scientists, the\u00a0most important determinants of presidential elections in the past half-century or more\u00a0have not been the character or political ideology of candidates, or even the strengths of\u00a0their parties, but rather the state of the economy.<br \/>\nTo emphasize the key role of the economy in setting the stage for presidential elections is\u00a0not to be an economic determinist. Regression models predicting the election outcome\u00a0from the economy have large error terms. But the economics-based forecast is a good\u00a0starting point.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">And here\u2019s what was special about 1964 and 1972: These were two of the three strongest\u00a0years for the economy in the postwar era, with per-capita income growth in the 4 percent\u00a0range, and the candidates running for re-election\u2014Johnson and Nixon\u2014won in landslides,\u00a0as would be predicted (the other strong election year in terms of economic growth was\u00a01984, when Ronald Reagan reaped the electoral benefit).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">But 2016 was not like 1964 or 1972. The economy was slowly recovering, no longer in\u00a0recession, but it was not booming as in those earlier years. According to the US\u00a0Bureau of Economic Analysis, per-capita personal income grew at an annual\u00a0rate of about 2.5 percent during the past year and 1.2 percent averaged over the past four years.\u00a0These numbers are OK but not stunning and did not foretell an electoral landslide, in either\u00a0direction. Going by economic indicators, we were looking at a close election, perhaps slightly\u00a0favouring the incumbent party\u2019s candidate, depending on how strongly one weights the\u00a0most recent economic performance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">One could jiggle this further by adjusting for presidential\u00a0popularity (a slight plus for the Democrats), incumbent not running for re-election (a slight plus for\u00a0the Republicans), and party balancing (a slight plus for the Democrats), but I buy the general\u00a0point of political scientist Doug Hibbs and others, not that the Democrats were guaranteed to win but that the fundamentals predicted a close\u00a0election with a slight edge to the Democrats and enough uncertainty to make the campaign\u00a0interesting. So, yes the campaign mattered but given what we know about elections it\u2019s no surprise\u00a0the election was close.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">In the event, Clinton won the popular vote, Trump won the electoral vote, and there were some changes in vote coalitions (most notably, college-educated women moving to Clinton and non-college-educated men moving to Trump) and a drop in turnout of key Democratic groups, and that made all the difference. All from a baseline of a close election, as predicted based on economic conditions and the stability induced by political polarization.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":25,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-119","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trump-Clinton was expected to be close: the economy said so - US Election Analysis 2016<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump-Clinton was expected to be close: the economy said so - US Election Analysis 2016\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"US Election Analysis 2016\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-11-18T15:47:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/\",\"name\":\"Trump-Clinton was expected to be close: the economy said so - US Election Analysis 2016\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-11-18T00:34:08+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-11-18T15:47:06+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"US Election Analysis 2016\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Section 3: Policy\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":4,\"name\":\"Trump-Clinton was expected to be close: the economy said so\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/\",\"name\":\"US Election Analysis 2016\",\"description\":\"Media, Voters and the Campaign\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Trump-Clinton was expected to be close: the economy said so - US Election Analysis 2016","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Trump-Clinton was expected to be close: the economy said so - US Election Analysis 2016","og_url":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/","og_site_name":"US Election Analysis 2016","article_modified_time":"2016-11-18T15:47:06+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw.png"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/","url":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/","name":"Trump-Clinton was expected to be close: the economy said so - US Election Analysis 2016","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw.png","datePublished":"2016-11-18T00:34:08+00:00","dateModified":"2016-11-18T15:47:06+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/#primaryimage","url":"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw.png","contentUrl":"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Andrew_Gelman-bw.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/trump-clinton-was-expected-to-be-close-the-economy-said-so\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"US Election Analysis 2016","item":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Section 3: Policy","item":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-3-policy\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":4,"name":"Trump-Clinton was expected to be close: the economy said so"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/","name":"US Election Analysis 2016","description":"Media, Voters and the Campaign","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/119"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/119\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":428,"href":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/119\/revisions\/428"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/25"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}