{"id":107,"date":"2016-11-18T00:30:52","date_gmt":"2016-11-18T00:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/?page_id=107"},"modified":"2016-11-18T15:27:49","modified_gmt":"2016-11-18T15:27:49","slug":"air-war-campaign-advertising-in-the-2016-presidential-election","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/air-war-campaign-advertising-in-the-2016-presidential-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Air war? Campaign advertising in the 2016 Presidential Election"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"row \"><\/p>\n<p><div class=\"col-lg-3 col-md-3 col-xs-12 col-sm-3\">\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-362\" src=\"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Matthew_Motta-bw-300x300.png\" alt=\"matthew_motta-bw\" width=\"227\" height=\"227\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Matthew_Motta-bw-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Matthew_Motta-bw-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Matthew_Motta-bw-60x60.png 60w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Matthew_Motta-bw.png 347w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 227px) 100vw, 227px\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"ProfileText2\">\n<p class=\"BIO\"><strong><span class=\"CharOverride-35\">Matthew Motta<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"BIO\"><em>Political Science PhD candidate and National Science Foundation (NSF) Graduate Research Fellow at the University of Minnesota \u2013 Twin Cities. Matt\u2019s research primarily focuses on what citizens know about politics; including topics like how citizens learn about campaigns, and how that information shapes the political decisions they make.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"BIO\"><span class=\"CharOverride-37\">Email: motta018@umn.edu<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-260\" src=\"http:\/\/www.electionanalysis2016.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-300x300.png\" alt=\"US2016 - Section 2\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-768x771.png 768w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-1020x1024.png 1020w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2-60x60.png 60w, https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/US2016-Section-2.png 1022w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<h5 class=\"CampaignQuote2\">Section 2: Campaign<\/h5>\n<div class=\"page-list\"><ul class=\"list-group-item\"><li class=\"page_item page-item-91\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/evidence-for-the-powerful-roles-of-polarization-and-partisanship\/\">Evidence for the powerful roles of polarization and partisanship<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-95\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/the-emotional-brand-wins\/\">The emotional brand wins<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-97\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/donald-trumps-slogan-betrays-a-renewed-political-fixation-on-the-past\/\">Donald Trump\u2019s slogan betrays a renewed political fixation on the past<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-99\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/dog-whistles-and-dumpster-fires\/\">Dog whistles and dumpster fires<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-101\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/how-donald-trump-bullies-with-his-body-language\/\">How Donald Trump bullies with his body language<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-103\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/analysing-debate-questions-is-it-time-to-rethink-the-town-hall\/\">Analysing debate questions: is it time to rethink the town hall?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-105\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/image-bites-voter-enthusiasm-and-the-2016-presidential-election\/\">Image bites, voter enthusiasm, and the 2016 Presidential Election<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-109\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/us-election-what-impact-do-celebrity-endorsements-really-have\/\">US election: what impact do celebrity endorsements really have?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-111\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/the-backlash-of-the-loose-cannon-musicians-and-the-celebrity-cleavage\/\">The backlash of the loose cannon: musicians and the celebrity cleavage<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-113\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/the-curious-case-of-jill-stein\/\">The curious case of Jill Stein<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-115\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/the-green-party-effect-in-the-us-2016-election\/\">The Green Party effect in the US 2016 Election<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-127\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/us-presidential-candidate-selection\/\">US presidential candidate selection<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-117\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionanalysis.ws\/us\/president2016\/us-election-analysis-2016\/section-2-campaign\/the-lolnothingmatters-election\/\">The #LolNothingMatters election<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<p><\/div><\/p>\n<p><div class=\"col-lg-9 col-md-9 col-xs-12 col-sm-9\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">In many respects, the 2016 Presidential Election was unlike any other. One particularly unique feature of the campaign was a sizable asymmetry in the number of advertisements aired on behalf of each of the major party candidates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Despite being vastly outspent on the airwaves, President-Elect Donald Trump won more than 300 votes in the Electoral College. However, his victory should not imply that political advertisements are ineffective at winning votes. Instead, the final election tally begs scholars and observers of American politics to rethink conventional wisdom about campaigning on television.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">In what follows, I raise (and attempt to answer) several questions about the state of advertising in 2016 and its implications for what scholars know about their effectiveness.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><strong><span class=\"BOLD\">A War on the Airwaves?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">If the 2016 campaign was a battle for control of the airwaves, the fight was one sided (at best). While both sides saw fewer advertisements aired on their behalf than did each respective party nominee in 2012,\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/mediaproject.wesleyan.edu\/releases\/nov-2016\/#table1\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">data from the Wesleyan Media Project (WMP)\u00a0<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">suggests that pro-Clinton airings (489,142 from June 8 &#8211; October 30, 2016) were about three times greater than pro-Trump airings (99,441). Clinton\u2019s dominance on the airwaves held fairly steady throughout the campaign. In contrast to the view that Trump might make a late push to flood the airwaves with advertisements before the campaign concluded, WMP data show that pro-Clinton advertisements outnumbered pro-Trump ads by nearly 2:1\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/mediaproject.wesleyan.edu\/releases\/nov-2016\/#app\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">in the final two weeks of the campaign<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">There were also several important asymmetries in the sponsorship of advertisements on both sides. While candidates sponsored the majority of all ads aired in their favor, Clinton received substantial help from interest groups (more than ninety thousand airings in her favor), whereas Donald Trump received absolutely none (although\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/mediaproject.wesleyan.edu\/releases\/nov-2016\/#table4\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">several interest groups were actively involved<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0in airing anti-Clinton advertisements). Interestingly, Donald Trump aired fewer advertisements\u00a0<\/span>overall\u00a0<span class=\"REGULAR\">than did Bernie Sanders in the Democratic Primary, and the\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/mediaproject.wesleyan.edu\/releases\/nov-2016\/#tablea2\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">overall tone of ads aired<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0were somewhat more positive than those aired in 2012.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><strong><span class=\"BOLD\">Does Campaign Advertising Change Minds?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">In the past, political scientists have found that asymmetries in advertising totals have important consequences for candidates\u2019 electoral fates.\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.temple.edu\/tempress\/titles\/2117_reg.html\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Several<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.temple.edu\/tempress\/titles\/1922_reg.html\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">scholars<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0have demonstrated that advertising advantages can increase support for a candidate, even\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/citeseerx.ist.psu.edu\/viewdoc\/download?doi=10.1.1.567.3122&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">independently of mobilization efforts \u201con the ground.\u201d<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<span class=\"REGULAR\">Political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/press.princeton.edu\/titles\/10350.html\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">find<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0that support tends to respond to short-term airing advantages. But, because candidates typically<\/span>\u00a0keep pace\u00a0<span class=\"REGULAR\">with each others\u2019 advertising spending, these effects usually cancel out.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">The 2016 election offers a unique opportunity for scholars to study a campaign in which advertising was more one-sided, and may prove to turn conventional wisdom on its head. Consistent with conventional wisdom, Donald Trump picked up narrow, and unanticipated, victories in Wisconsin and Michigan; states where he held moderate to high advertising advantages in the final two weeks of the campaign, in some media markets. Further, the candidate with the most advertisements aired on her behalf also won the popular vote.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Yet, there is also reason to rethink the conventional wisdom. In some states where Clinton held heavy advertising advantages in the final weeks of the campaign (e.g.,\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/mediaproject.wesleyan.edu\/releases\/nov-2016\/#fig1\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">), she ultimately lost. Further, Trump\u2019s advertising edges in\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/mediaproject.wesleyan.edu\/releases\/nov-2016\/#fig1\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Virginia and Colorado<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">\u00a0during the same timeframe ultimately did not win him either state.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><strong><span class=\"BOLD\">How will Scholars Make Sense of 2016?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"FIRST-PARA\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">We can never truly know what the popular and state vote totals\u00a0<\/span>would have looked like\u00a0<span class=\"REGULAR\">had political advertising not been present.<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"REGULAR\">One way to ascertain the effectiveness will be to turn to public\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"REGULAR\">opinion surveys collected after the final vote was tallied.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Political advertisements create \u201cnaturally occurring\u201d experiments on a daily basis, because media markets often cross state boundaries. If voters live in markets that receive substantial advertising because they overlap with a battleground state (where candidates will also have strong ground games), but do not actually live in a battleground state themselves, it is possible to isolate the effect of advertising independently of other factors that might also shape vote choice.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">For example, the Erie market in Pennsylvania (a battleground state) overlaps with New York (a strongly Democratic state). In the final two weeks of the campaign, Trump held a significant advertising advantage in Erie. If voters in that part of New York became more likely to vote for Trump at the election\u2019s conclusion, advertisements may have indeed shaped their vote choice.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">Advertisements also have the potential to do more than alter citizens\u2019 vote intentions. Exposure to campaign advertising has been shown to\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bowdoin.edu\/~mfranz\/Freedman-Franz-Goldstein.pdf\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">boost citizens\u2019 knowledge about ,and interest in, the presidential campaign<\/span><\/a><span class=\"REGULAR\">, for example.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"Basic-Paragraph-US\"><span class=\"REGULAR\">The 2016 Election will almost certainly challenge conventional wisdom about presidential campaign advertising. Scholars now have an opportunity to empirically which aspects of conventional wisdom were upheld, and which need further attention.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":23,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-107","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Air war? 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